One play for today (3.31.10)

Haven't written in awhile and I feel naked. Let's open the playbook. Who has an idea to pitch me?

ANYONE?

• Bonds: I'm looking for a sharp down draft (lower prices, higher yields) on Friday's Unemployment data. Wednesday's ADP data was shocking to say the least. The market gurus were predicting an increase in hiring (not a loss) and are also whispering about a +200-250K job number this Friday. I don't think that +200K will happen (Bloomberg wants +181K), but it could and the 'Census Hiring' could be the determining factor. Due to the run up in Yield Curve Futures today we were able to buy the Ten Year 113.5-114.5 put spread in May for 7 ticks (TYK 13+/14+). (Updated: 4.2.10: The Unemployment Report broke us a bit lower. We looked at and discussed the possibilities of rolling it into a NOB. However, the yield spread between the 10's and 30's is not at a level we felt comfortable initiating. Therefore, we simply sold our entire position at 12 ticks. Netting 5 ticks of profit)
• You have 2 plays with this spread as we cruise lower. Sell it out and take your 4-5 ticks OR sell the May 112-113 put spread in the BONDS on a 100:-65 ratio (ie sell 65 Bond spreads per 100 Ten Years)
• Option 2 actually allows you to collect a small amount of premium and to effectively have an NOB (Notes over Bonds) yield spread play on. 

~LH