Where the Summer Went

It's been a long time since I got around to writing. It's not that I've not wanted too...simply put, I haven't had the desire for a strange set of circumstances.

In terms of an update, here is a quick recap of the last few months.

• The spring was pretty steady. We were running two sizable books with a decent amount of PnL. Our Fed Funds book was like a constant rockstar and my partner was doing a better than average job at moving inventory and locking in profits on a daily basis. Unfortunately, my Eurodollar strategy was becoming more and more sporatic. In an effort to grow PnL's, I began trading some of the front flies on a mean reversion basis but this meant assuming more risks. Though I wound up taking in some profits, it wasn't an easy trade and some of the geopolitical aspects burned me for substantial losses.
• We take profits once a quarter, as June wrapped up, we were less than gangbusters on the P side. Summer is usually a slower time in the interest rate complex. Most of NYC goes to the Hamptons and turns off the markets with the lights as they leave. On a personal note, my wife and I were expecting a baby in early July and I was looking forward to taking some time off. 
• The summer took an unexpected twist when my partner asked to dissolve our partnership on July 23rd. He wasn't comfortable with the risk of the Eurodollar book and wasn't pleased with the return on my half of the partnership. In fairness, he was shouldering a majority of the profits so I can't say that I completely blame his decision. However, that meant a couple of things.  
• I would need to decided what to trade. If that was going to be Eurodollars...then steady as she goes. But if I wanted to go back to Fed funds, or options or yield curve or ANYTHING else, I needed to clear off a pretty sizable position that stretched out to 2017.  
• Was I going stay where I'd been for the last 30+ months, in the same office as a former partner?
• In some ways, I took a cop out on deciding what to do. I hit the eject button on a majority of my Eurodollar book. I think it cost me about 20K to simply liquidate it at the market. In hindsight, a very nice move...it cleared my head and I was able to move forward. I stepped back into the Fed Funds and began to trade it but with a new caveat. I left it intentionally small as I began the quest to do something new.

Ultimately, I reached the conclusion that it was time to pack up and leave. I needed a fresh start, new office and some change. The quest to find a suitable landing spot actually proved remarkably difficult. But I'm here...fully set up and running at roughly 50% capacity. Over the next few weeks, I plan on ramping up fully and I'll get back into the habit of writing weekly. I have nothing else to do since I'm now all alone in a 7'x15' box with a couple of windows. That story is next time.

Special thanks to @GeneratingAlpha for forcing me to write again. I appreciate the nudge and I'll get back to it.

~LH

Sizing up my opponent

Mid-September and I have plenty of irons in the fire. Yet the daily grind in the Fed Funds is slow and sometimes arduous.  The idea of growing our single accounts into a larger, more macro-focused trading vehicle has begun to effect my thoughts and the process by which I believe trade creation occurs. The Greek philosopher Heraclitus wrote, "Nothing endures but change." {We often hear it translated just a bit differently as, "Change is the only constant."} My newer approach is to pull back from the one tree from which I'm picking apples and take a look around me to see if there is any low-hanging fruit on another trees nearby. Why strain for the next marginal piece of fruit in my tree when there is a perfectly good piece of easy fruit on the tree right next to you? All that to say, I want to expand the book and create a greater exposure and presence markets that relate to the FF.

I've been at this long enough to know that most of my trades don't just appear out of nothing. A majority are created out of a calculated premise, a lengthy discussion and the intangible of experience. However, if we are to aim towards a more macro goal, I think the process can shift to a round table conversation where we answer the following questions:

1. Where do I think we're going tomorrow in the products that we trade?
2. What is the best trade for tomorrow?
3. What is the best trade for the next few weeks {3-6}?
4. What is the best trade for the quarter?

 I don't necessarily have the answers to any {all} of those questions at any given point, but collectively the answers will emerge. What I've described is the goal. How we actually go about getting to that point; well that's the adventure.

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I want to shift gears a bit and just briefly lay out some of the trades we've been working on over the last few weeks and months.

• In the FF we've been selling the 87/93 call spreads in December and February. We've been able to collect between .75 and 1 tick {1 tick = $41.67} and though they aren't "make your month" trades, they do help us finance our other positions.
• We've sold the March 68/75/81 put tree {-1, -1, +1} and collected an average of 1 tick. This trade leaves us short two downside puts and long one put that is currently ATM. If nothing happens in the Fed's policies or rates for the next few months OR we move higher in price {lower yields} we will simply collect our tick and be done with it. If however, we start to move lower, we're long a put spread with 1 naked short put below. The break even for this trade is roughly 9961.
• We've also done the May 68/75/81 put tree as describe above. However, we were able to collect an average of 2.75 ticks to sell the two legs and buy the one. The thought process and the theoretical payout is very similar.
• We have purchased the EDH {March 11} 92/95 {9925/9950} put spread in the Euro Dollars. Partially as a hedge against our FF put trees and partly to allow some credit risk exposure. Our thinking was if another European nation even hints at some type of sovereign wealth issue, the ED will react much more violently than the FF. We paid an average of 4.5 ticks {1 tick = $25}. The maximum this trade is worth is 25 ticks {less entry costs} giving us a very nice 5x1 on our money if it hits.

As far as what is out there but not quite ripe enough to pick? I think that the NOB is getting very attractive as a short position. The yield curve has been pricing in some type of QE2 coming out of tomorrow's FOMC meeting just as they did back in August. However, I find it difficult to believe that they will announce any type of easing coming out of an FOMC meeting. Perhaps they tweak the language, but nothing more. The chart below shows the generic NOB contract as generated by the CME. From its last top to the most recent bottom was nearly 80 ticks. At $156 per tick, that's a profit of ~$6,000 per one lot. I'm not sure how to best capture the pricing currently in the market. My gut says to get long USX {30 year Nov} put spreads and sell TYX put spreads for near zero cash outlay.

 ~LH