Showing posts with label practical thinker. Show all posts
Showing posts with label practical thinker. Show all posts

Monday, March 1, 2010

Rate plays for Down Under

Time to jump in the balmy waters of the Great Barrier Reef and taste a little bit of Australia. Practical Thinker has been snooping around the up-coming Australian rate decision due out at 10:30 EST. As usual, his homework is impeccable and his results...well, we'll need to wait about 45 mins.
Here's our trade:

Long the AUD from .8990
Target: .9070 {Sold out around .9040}
Stop: .8900

Start the clock, I don't anticipate a long wait on this one. 

~LH


Wednesday, February 24, 2010

Photo Op explanation

In an attempt to actually back up my claims of longevity, I've added a photo to the header of this page. Though to be honest, I'm not sure if your belief in my story is actually something I desire.

The picture fits a few trading metaphors. Some are more popular than others and some are simply those of my colleagues on the trading desk. I want to explore a few of these and how they play into my psychology and temperament.

1. There is so much _____ (money, assets, wealth) on the side lines.

  • Mr Practical Thinker, often mocks this theory. His logic is as follows: If you own stock A and sell it, what are you going to do with that money? Buy another stock (not on the sidelines), exchange it for another asset (buy a house or a boat...again, not on the sidelines), or throw it into the banking system where they get to use it (not on the sidelines). Unlike the little guy pictured here, he doubts that such a system really exists.

2. The grass is greener on the other side of the field.

  • This is a truism on so many levels. Whether we're talking about markets, women, or opportunities, the best ones are always the ones we wish we were involved in. However, in a grander scheme, they're all just a football field. Some might have been maintained a bit better, watered more, perhaps even had some artificial upgrades, but when it comes to the game (in this specific illustration: trading) the field is just a field. We play our game and go home. Nothing more. There is may be a better field somewhere else, but the illusion has made many a trader leave the market they know and love to chase the ones that look greener...and then I came back poorer.

3. It's a marathon, not a sprint. Even this little guy (in the photo) will get across the field eventually.
  • As in investing, that marathon approach has never really appealed to me (yes, I understand the compounding of returns, but still). As in trading, that is the phrase I use when I'm booking a lot of losers and instead of trading them, I have just simply stuck them in the position to deal with later.

4. Your progress should be as constant as the yard marks on a football field.
  • This makes sense to me. If your results are consistent and easily tracked, you have a replicable system. If you're erratic and following your logic is about as clear as mud, you are just monkey throwing darts. My goal is to always have the process right and then rely on the counsel of the guys around me to trade it well. I want people to be able to look back and say they understood the trade and the reason I'm out of it.

5. Guarding the Left Hash.
  • This has been my motto for some time now. As a scout team linebacker in college, I was an expendable body that could be put almost anywhere with very little recourse. During a frustrating mid-season practice the Offensive Coordinator finally snapped and sent the entire offense on a disciplinary lap (the was quite the painful experience for 300 lbs linemen). As they jogged, the scout defense was given new 'assignments'. Apparently, I wasn't a) very good  b) very important  c) not going to ever be able to give them a good 'look'  d) painfully slow  e) all these and more! My job, as it was described, was to just 'Guard the left hash'. Rather than take offense, I made it my job in life, to never be that disposable again. I fought to be irreplaceable and to always walk with my head up so that my crown didn't slip off my head. Some thought I was arrogant, but confidence looks very similar to those that have none. So for me, Guarding the Left Hash is the maturation of a scout-teamer into a trader and all the swagger that goes with it.

Finally, my market is saturated with powerful spreading algorithm traders. These boxes are lightning fast, accurate and self correcting. It is impossible to 'out-quick' them. But they have a serious flaw, they don't reason like we can. Granted, many of them actually "see" more of the market than we do, but they can't differentiate from the puke and the panic buyer. I think that there is only one real advantage we still have over the trading skills of a computer. That is our ability to know ourselves and to trade with a pure, unadulterated opinion of the environment surrounding us. An opinion formed on the back of a lot of hours, a multitude of paid 'dues', and the belief that we have matured and have no problem Guarding our Left Hash.

~LH

Thursday, February 18, 2010

In a giant bubble

My friend and colleague Mr. Practical Thinker had some fascinating points on his view of the current global market place and debt crisis {Mr. PT's blog}. Though my thoughts are probably not able to add new revelation on his ideas, I do think it's important that we look to see what paper (JPM in particular) is doing to cover their risk is just one tiny sliver of the market.

As an avid follower of the yield curve and its largest participants, I always find it fascinating when paper decides to do something that is strange AND expensive.

Many large institutions have been selling May and June strangles in the Ten Year Note (TY). This is a common, quarterly occurrence and includes the likes of PIMCO, JPM, SSB, and ML. Understanding why they do these strangles usually has to come from the gaze of, "We need to add return X+1.5% (yield enhancement) on our mortgage portfolio, how can we accomplish this?" Commonly, they will sell a strangle to help bolster the bottom line. (i.e. if you were to sell 100 June 115-120 strangles at 36 ticks, you would receive $56250)

This strategy can be especially advantageous if you are long a basket of bond-type instruments because this will offer you a forced sell on the upside (short calls) at higher prices than you purchased and a forced buy on the downside (short puts) at levels that would average in better long term costs.

Today, JPM decided to do the opposite. They actually spent money and have been doing so for the last few trading sessions. They have now purchased roughly 12,500 June 123 calls for an average price of 5.75 ticks. This trade represents a 1.12mm insurance policy just in case the world decides to go bonkers. If the Greek debt crisis explodes or if the Russians default again or any of the other random, fat-tail events (that one of my heroes Nassim Nicholas Taleb writes about) actually occur.

As a local thinks: These are airport options if you sell them. Either you're going to the airport to take a fantastic trip because of your immense profits or you're headed to the airport to get out of town before your clearing firm figures out how much you've lost! Either way...you're headed on a trip!